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 1 
 on: September 03, 2016, 09:25:56 PM 
Started by Phil - Last post by Phil
100CLUB must be Betfair Fav. Ideal for a Ratchet Staking plan to build your bank before going Levels.
AAA1 usually trade well.
Bandits do well at Level Stakes.
Beryl's are in test mode but should trade well and profit at level stakes.

 2 
 on: September 03, 2016, 09:22:03 PM 
Started by Phil - Last post by Phil
 
Time Meet No Qualifier FSP Model
4.1 ASCO 10 SHAMSHON(IRE)              100Club
5.2 ASCO 5 BASHIBA(IRE)               100Club
14.05 ASCO 5 FORTUNE OF WAR(GB) 9 AAA1
14.05 ASCO 5 FORTUNE OF WAR(GB)       [br /] Bandits1
14.4 ASCO 2 FIRMAMENT(GB)            7.5 Beryl
14.4 ASCO 3 YATTWEE(USA) 10 AAA1
14.4 ASCO 16 LINCOLN(IRE)               Bandits1
15.1 ASCO 1 DAL HARRAILD(GB)         5.5 Beryl
15.1 ASCO 2 STARGAZER(IRE) 2.75 AAA1
15.4 ASCO 1 AMELIA DREAM(GB) 9 AAA1
15.4 ASCO 1 AMELIA DREAM(GB)         9 Beryl
16.1 ASCO 1 OUT DO(GB)               29 Beryl
16.1 ASCO 2 MAGNUS MAXIMUS(GB) 16 AAA1
16.45 ASCO 1 LIGHT AND SHADE(GB) 5 AAA1
16.45 ASCO 1 LIGHT AND SHADE(GB)      5 Beryl
16.45 ASCO 2 ALJULJALAH(USA)            Bandits1
16.45 ASCO 3 LIL SOPHELLA(IRE)          Bandits1
17.2 ASCO 5 BASHIBA(IRE) 5.5 AAA1
17.2 ASCO 5 BASHIBA(IRE)             5.5 Beryl
1.5 HAYD 7 ZEST(IRE)                  100Club
4 HAYD 14 EL ASTRONAUTE(IRE)         100Club
5.05 HAYD 1 COSMEAPOLITAN(GB)          100Club
13.5 HAYD 6 TRAINNAH(GB) 4 AAA1
13.5 HAYD 6 TRAINNAH(GB)             4 Beryl
13.5 HAYD 7 ZEST(IRE)                  Bandits1
14.25 HAYD 4 CUNCO(IRE) 5.5 AAA1
15 HAYD 10 FIRST SELECTION(SPA) 11 AAA1
15.3 HAYD 17 WALPOLE(IRE) 7 AAA1
15.3 HAYD 17 WALPOLE(IRE)             7 Beryl
16 HAYD 14 EL ASTRONAUTE(IRE) 8.5 AAA1
16 HAYD 14 EL ASTRONAUTE(IRE)       8.5 Beryl
16.3 HAYD 3 LIMATO(IRE) 3 AAA1
17.05 HAYD 1 COSMEAPOLITAN(GB) 3 AAA1
14.1 KEMP 3 SIR DANCEALOT(IRE)       4 Beryl
14.45 KEMP 8 HARRY CHAMPION(GB)         Bandits1
15.15 KEMP 2 KOROPICK(IRE)            1.63 Beryl
15.15 KEMP 4 THE LAST LION(IRE)         Bandits1
15.45 KEMP 5 SKY HUNTER(GB)           3 Beryl
16.15 KEMP 2 SIRIUS PROSPECT(USA)     [br /] Bandits1
16.5 KEMP 5 MCCOOLS GOLD(GB)           Bandits1
17.25 KEMP 15 MOOJANED(IRE)            [br /] Bandits1
14.15 NAVA 6 MAGNIFICATION(IRE) 5.5 AAA1
14.15 NAVA 6 MAGNIFICATION(IRE)       5.5 Beryl
14.5 NAVA 3 FLIGHT RISK(IRE) 3.33 AAA1
15.2 NAVA 3 CALIFORNIADREAMING(IRE) 14 AAA1
15.2 NAVA 3 CALIFORNIADREAMING(IRE)  14 Beryl
15.2 NAVA 10 PICK OF ANY(IRE)         [br /] Bandits1
15.5 NAVA 2 CALLENDER(IRE) 2 AAA1
15.5 NAVA 5 RED SABOR(GB)              Bandits1
16.2 NAVA 3 BARNACLE BILL(IRE)         Bandits1
16.2 NAVA 6 SRETAW(IRE) 11 AAA1
16.55 NAVA 12 WONDERSNEVERCEASE(GB) 3.5 AAA1
16.55 NAVA 12 WONDERSNEVERCEASE(GB)    3.5 Beryl
17.3 NAVA 6 LADY BENNETT(IRE) 26 AAA1
17.3 NAVA 6 LADY BENNETT(IRE)        26 Beryl
17.3 NAVA 20 CAN SHE FLY(GB)            Bandits1
13.55 STRA 1 SEEYOUALLINCOPPERS(IRE) 2.75 AAA1
13.55 STRA 1 SEEYOUALLINCOPPERS(IRE)  2.75 Beryl
13.55 STRA 5 GENTLEMAN MOORE(IRE)       Bandits1
14.3 STRA 2 PASS THE TIME(GB) 0.8 AAA1
14.3 STRA 2 PASS THE TIME(GB)        0.8 Beryl
14.3 STRA 3 THEATRE FLAME(IRE)       1.38 Beryl
15.05 STRA 1 SHARP RISE(IRE)          3.5 Beryl
15.05 STRA 2 ROSSETTI(GB) 2.13 AAA1
15.05 STRA 2 ROSSETTI(GB)             2.13 Beryl
15.05 STRA 4 MAY HAY(GB)              [br /] Bandits1
15.35 STRA 1 ART OF LOGISTICS(IRE)    4.5 Beryl
15.35 STRA 3 KILFINICHEN BAY(IRE) 4.5 AAA1
15.35 STRA 3 KILFINICHEN BAY(IRE)       Bandits1
16.05 STRA 2 TAPER TANTRUM(IRE) 1.2 AAA1
16.05 STRA 2 TAPER TANTRUM(IRE)       1.2 Beryl
16.35 STRA 3 ENJOY RESPONSIBLY(IRE) 5.5 AAA1
16.35 STRA 3 ENJOY RESPONSIBLY(IRE)   5.5 Beryl
17.1 STRA 8 RAISED ON GRAZEON(GB) 1.25 AAA1
17.1 STRA 8 RAISED ON GRAZEON(GB)    1.25 Beryl
14.2 THIR 6 ROCK N ROLLA(IRE) 24 AAA1
14.2 THIR 6 ROCK N ROLLA(IRE)        24 Beryl
14.55 THIR 1 REACHFORTHESTARS(IRE) 3.33 AAA1
14.55 THIR 10 REINSTORM(GB)              Bandits1
15.25 THIR 1 SEAMSTER(GB) 6.5 AAA1
15.25 THIR 1 SEAMSTER(GB)             6.5 Beryl
15.25 THIR 4 MAGICAL EFFECT(IRE)      2 Beryl
15.25 THIR 9 CLUBLAND(IRE)              Bandits1
15.55 THIR 3 MURAD KHAN(FR) 5 AAA1
15.55 THIR 6 TAWDHEEF(IRE)              Bandits1
16.25 THIR 3 ROSINA(GB) 14 AAA1
16.25 THIR 3 ROSINA(GB)                 Bandits1
17 THIR 7 PLAY NICELY(GB)          [br /] Bandits1
17 THIR 10 POINTILLISM(GB) 4.5 AAA1
17.35 THIR 3 GAMRAH(IRE)              6 Beryl
17.35 THIR 7 ORGANZA(GB) 4 AAA1
18.05 THIR 1 MASS RALLY(IRE) 6.5 AAA1
18.05 THIR 1 MASS RALLY(IRE)          6.5 Beryl
18.05 THIR 3 STOCKING(GB)               Bandits1
18.05 THIR 3 STOCKING(GB)             24 Beryl
18.05 THIR 7 MON BRAV(GB)               Bandits1
7.2 WOLV 3 FLOWERS ON VENUS(IRE)      100Club
7.5 WOLV 3 WELL DONE(IRE)             100Club
17.5 WOLV 2 CLARY(IRE) 14 AAA1
17.5 WOLV 11 ASSISTED(GB)             [br /] Bandits1
18.2 WOLV 7 SYMBOLIC STAR(IRE)       [br /] Bandits1
18.2 WOLV 10 VAN DYKE(GB)             8 Beryl
18.2 WOLV 11 AL KHAFJI(GB) 8 AAA1
18.2 WOLV 11 AL KHAFJI(GB)              Bandits1
18.2 WOLV 11 AL KHAFJI(GB)            8 Beryl
18.5 WOLV 5 SWIFT MOVER(IRE)         5.5 Beryl
18.5 WOLV 6 MARQUEE CLUB(GB)         [br /] Bandits1
18.5 WOLV 7 JUST MAYBE(GB) 8.5 AAA1
19.2 WOLV 1 RUSSIAN REALM(GB)        2.75 Beryl
19.2 WOLV 3 FLOWERS ON VENUS(IRE) 1.88 AAA1
19.2 WOLV 3 FLOWERS ON VENUS(IRE)      Bandits1
19.5 WOLV 4 AMLAK(GB) 7 AAA1
19.5 WOLV 4 AMLAK(GB)                  Bandits1
19.5 WOLV 4 AMLAK(GB)                7 Beryl
20.2 WOLV 1 WATERSMEET(GB) 3.5 AAA1
20.2 WOLV 1 WATERSMEET(GB)           3.5 Beryl
20.2 WOLV 3 SLOWFOOT(GER)            [br /] Bandits1
20.5 WOLV 7 ELLE REBELLE(GB) 6.5 AAA1
20.5 WOLV 7 ELLE REBELLE(GB)         6.5 Beryl
20.5 WOLV 8 SUNSHINEANDBUBBLES(GB)   [br /] Bandits1
20.5 WOLV 9 WANT THE FAIRYTALE(GB)   5.5 Beryl

 3 
 on: November 28, 2015, 09:18:41 PM 
Started by navajo - Last post by Phil
TimeCourseRugQualifier
12.35BANG4BLAMEITALONMYROOTS(IRE)
13.05BANG2GOOHAR(IRE)             
13.35BANG8SAFRAN DE COTTE(FR)     
14.1BANG1MR SHANTU(IRE)         
14.45BANG2GOLDBOY(IRE)           
15.2BANG5TIPPMANBOY(IRE)         
15.5BANG1THE NIPPER(IRE)         
11.4FAIR1ALVISIO VILLE(FR)       
12.1FAIR1MISS DINAMIC(IRE)       
12.1FAIR2SOLITA(IRE)             
12.4FAIR10STRONGPOINT(IRE)       
13.1FAIR12PYLONTHEPRESSURE(IRE)   
13.4FAIR6NAMBOUR(GER)           
14.15FAIR13LORD BEN(IRE)           
14.5FAIR6ORGANISEDCONFUSION(IRE)
15.25FAIR7NETTLEBUSH(IRE)         
17.45WOLV3HOLLYWOOD ROAD(IRE)     
18.15WOLV11HOME CUMMINS(IRE)       
18.45WOLV2MOONBI CREEK(IRE)       
19.15WOLV7GREY DESTINY(GB)       
19.45WOLV10SKY SHIP(GB)           
20.15WOLV2THE STEWARD(USA)       
20.45WOLV10ICKYMASHO(GB)           
21.15WOLV8ROMAN DE BRUT(IRE)     
12.15NEWB1COLLA PIER(IRE)         
12.45NEWB1ASO(FR)                 
13.15NEWB15ABRACADABRA SIVOLA(FR) 
13.5NEWB5AUENWIRBEL(GER)         
14.25NEWB2WHISPER(FR)             
15NEWB8THE YOUNG MASTER(GB)   
15.35NEWB6STELLAR NOTION(IRE)     
12.2DONC6XENOPHON(GB)           
12.5DONC1ASCOTDEUX NELLERIE(FR) 
13.2DONC3DOUBLE W'S(IRE)         
13.55DONC8JACK STEEL(IRE)         
14.3DONC6HUFF AND PUFF(GB)       
15.05DONC3BRIERY QUEEN(GB)       
15.4DONC11SHINING ROMEO(GB)       
12NEWC1SHIMLA DAWN(IRE)       
12.3NEWC8TROUBLE IN PARIS(IRE)   
13NEWC2BALLYDINE(IRE)         
13.3NEWC5SWING HARD(IRE)         
14.05NEWC3IRVING(GB)             
14.4NEWC5CLOUDY TOO(IRE)         
15.15NEWC1BABY BACH(IRE)         

 4 
 on: October 12, 2013, 11:31:27 AM 
Started by navajo - Last post by Phil
Good luck Chief! :13:

 5 
 on: October 12, 2013, 11:21:53 AM 
Started by navajo - Last post by navajo
I've been playing around the last couple of weeks with my own form of points allocated ratings.  I am still collecting data and refining as I am going along. Here is what my ratings have considered the top chances for today:

Caulfield
R4 No4 Vatican
R5 No4 Shamal Wind

Randwick
R1 No6 Multilateral
R4 No8 Angel Bee
R5 No4 Landing
R7 No9 Gangster's Choice

Doomben
R3 No3 Vis A Tergo
R5 No3 Tornado Miss

Morphettville
R4 No1 Thomason
R8 No2 Swipeline

Belmont ( first time running ratings in WA - be cautious)
R4 No2 Kheleva
R5 No4 My Rouge
R9 No1 Sail Maker

 6 
 on: October 09, 2013, 03:14:53 PM 
Started by Bundy - Last post by Bundy
That liability under Para 2. should of course read "Now you place a LAY bet @ $9.40 for $90, a liability of 756" not 144. My apologies.

 7 
 on: October 09, 2013, 02:53:28 PM 
Started by Bundy - Last post by Bundy
Following are some methods to use when trading on Betfair.
There are many ways and I have not covered them all here.
The calculations as examples below do not take Betfair Commission into consideration.

1. The "Free Bet"
The theory to gain a free bet is simple enough.

First off you BACK the runner for example @ $10 for $100 That is a nett profit of $900
You now place a LAY bet @ $9.40 for the same amount of $100 That is a liability of $840
Now subtract the liability of 840 from the nett profit of 900 and you have a free bet of $60 going for you. (Subject to the LAY bet being matched of course).

The secret here is not to be greedy and set your LAY bet to low. In fact I mostly just use one tick increments and get matched many times where possible.

You can then decide either beforehand or during the run if you want to hedge the bet or not. Hedging is explained further on.

The free bet also works in reverse ie you can LAY first then BACK if you feel the runner is going to drift rather than shorten.

2. Trading to increase the odds.

A simple but slightly more volatile approach to gain overs on your runners is to first place a BACK bet, again @ $10 for $100 giving a nett profit of 900.

Now you place a LAY bet @ $9.40 for $90, a liability of 756 leaving you with a bet of 144 to 10. That is now odds of around 15.4/1 Massive overs. Do not let these trades go in play if you do not wish to risk losing the $100. It is better to take a small loss pre in that situation by hedging out or taking a scratch trade.

3. "Standard In Play" Trading

A method used by many simply to ensure profit when your selection firms in running. Again $100 @ $10 for a nett profit of $900.

Now you pick a price where you can get some or all of your stake back and be assured of a profit. In this example we are confident of our selection trading well so we choose $7 to return all our outlay which is then a free bet of 300 but we want to ensure a profit when it trades lower so we now lock in a LAY of 100 @ $2.30 (I did say we were confident).

Now here are the scenarios:
Our runner trades to $7 and our 100 stake is returned but trades no lower so we break even.
Our runner trades to $2.30 but no lower we now win 100
Our runner wins the event we now win $170

It is up to you to decide what exit points and what amounts to use. I base them on my confidence in the selection but always leave the option open to bail out in play for a small loss or to break even if you feel the runner is not performing to your expectations.

4. Hedging

This is an example of how to calculate a Hedge bet. There are various software programs that can be used to do this for you with a single click. If you would like to know more about them then send me a PM.

Hedging is simple mathematics.
Again we have a BACK bet of 100 @ 10 for a nett profit of 900 and a theoretical LAY @ $9 for 100 leaving a profit of 100
You now divide that 100 by the lay odds of 9 so it is 100/9 = 11.11 Your hedge LAY is now $111.11 leaving you with a profit of 11.11 across all runners when the bet is matched.

These are just some examples and many would choose different exit points and amounts. It is up to you to decide how you would like to play it.

I regularly exit trades early for a small loss if I feel the price is going against me. Every trade left to work in play becomes a gamble.

Feel free to add your own methods and thoughts.

 8 
 on: May 23, 2012, 12:04:30 PM 
Started by Phil - Last post by Phil

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